A couple of days ago I wrote a short introduction on my Facebook page It’s about the increase of the Norwegian Defence Budget. Very good! Could/would/should your first reaction be… an example for more European countries right?
Well I fully agree until we read into details. That’s it, it’s always in the nasty details!
There we go…
The Norwegian Government proposed a 9.8% real terms defence budget increase for 2016, including a near doubling of funding for the F-35,….
The majority of the increase comes from a near doubling of the funding related to the Norwegian acquisition of the F-35, which ensures that the Norwegian procurement of the F-35 will proceed as planned.
And this doubling doesn’t mean they will order MORE aircraft… no the proposed aircraft buy will be even more expensive than they initially figured…. And that’s the funny part, the Norwegian MoD already had a larger budget for their acquisition then for example the Netherlands did… So if the Norwegian budget was unrealistic.. how ill the current Dutch budget be? the same tactic here.. Just order the planes and explain later they where more expensive than anticipated…. the hook is in!
So what we read here is:
- There will be a 9,8% real time defence budget increase for 2016 and beyond.
- A near doubling of funding for JSF (as I keep calling it (as long as it’s not an operational fighter aircraft in the meaning of the word operational)
- As I was pointing out with my comment: the near doubling of the JSF budget doesn’t mean the Norwegian Airforce is planning to order MORE Aircraft.. nope… it’s stillt the proposed buy of 52 JSF.
OK so we read the article again on armyrecognition.com
But thanks to my network I can improve the factual quality of this analysis a little bit further. And it’s astonishing. But take note, this is an advice!
AN ADVICE TO THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP
The Strategic Military Review is only a recommendation, but it will serve as a key input in the Government’s work with a new long-term plan for the Norwegian defence sector. The Government is expected to present its proposal to Parliament in early 2016.
They made a good quality read if you can read Norwegian ofcourse, but it’s 95 pages. They even made a special English website about this. In chapter 4 they give a desired Defense plan where there still is talks about 52 JSF, but in Chapter 5 they share a Defense plan what would be the case if they don’t increase the budget.
Let’s start the analysis now:
If you read Page 84 (pdf) it says:
Ildkraften forbedres gjennom innfasingen av F-35 kampfly med avanserte våpen, inkludert angtrekkende presisjonsvåpen. Samtidig reduseres antallet kampfly i forhold til dagens plan for å balansere kostnadene i strukturen.
… Firepower improved through the phasing out (should be inJ) of the F-35 fighter aircraft, advanced weapons, including long-range precision weapons. At the same time reduces the number of combat aircraft in relation to current plan to balance the cost of the structure.
Shocking isn’t it? A reduction in the number of aircraft, while proposing an increase (a near doubling) of the budget allocated for the JSF program.
On the next page(Page 85) of the report we read what kind of reduction..
The graphic in Norwegian says enough.
Just for those of you who don’t understand (or don’t want to understand like politicians from CDA, VVD, Lobbyists from the Dutch MoD, (RNLAF) NIDV, Ministry of Economic Affairs, This is what it says!
From 2017 – 2020 they plan to receive 28 of the 42 JSF. In 2028 42 JSF delivered and F16 fighters will be phased out!
Just checking the English language website…. What does it say about the JSF?
F-35, THE “FUTURE BACKBONE”
From a military point of view, it is preferable to execute the recommended changes quickly in order to achieve the desired operational effects and cost-effective operation of the Norwegian Armed Forces.
Despite speculation that the Chief of Defence would recommend cutbacks in the Norwegian F-35 acquisition, Admiral Bruun-Hanssen stressed that he is required to keep the minimum of F-35s, due to the importance as the future backbone of the Norwegian Armed Forces.
“We remain dependent on the timely introduction of new capabilities into our Armed Forces, such as the F-35. Only by completing the acquisition of 52 combat aircraft with the Joint Strike Missile, will we be able to provide the full spectrum capabilities that we need to address our future security challenges,” the Admiral underlined.
So what is going on here? I think we need some answers.
This can only mean two things:
- They say they can now buy only 42 and still promote it to the outside world that they stick to 52..
- Or they have enough money now for 42 (if they are lucky) and will push for 52 (or more) later on…. (if there is enough tension build up with Russia for example…)
How could any parliament agree on this?
An increase in the budget for the JSF (based on 52) they are speaking of a near doubling, but we now read it will be for less aircraft instead of buying 52 they will be buying 42. (keep in mind that Norway already used a relative high acquisition budget for this project compared to the Dutch and others (as total project cost and the used cost per aircraft.)
Just to finish this, have a look at the current estimates of this so big to fail program where they promised a production between 4.500 – 5.000 JSF. This is the current estimate of Johan Boeder from JSFNieuws.nl
Yes dear Air Force people, Mr. Boeder isn’t a professional AirForce guru like you… but in fact he is right with almost all his estimates while You (and your JSF lobby gangs) are false every single time. So when does this come known by the bigger public? Just have a look at the estimation:
ITALY: from 130 to 90 and pressure for more cuts
HOLLAND: from 85 to 37 and new evidence (last defence budget FY2016) for need to cut again 4 aircraft
UK: 138 to 90 or even 48 (with Typhoon A2G capabilties development clear sign that Tornado fleet partially will be replaced by Typhoon, and not by F35B as planned)
CANADA: wait for elections, and 65 impossible within budget
DENMARK: delayed decision, when? And max 25 F35As possible
NORWAY: 52/56 reduced to 42
TURKEY: waiting and delaying firm orders
ISRAEL: initially planned a 100 F35A acquisition to replace more than 300 F16 of it’s F16 fleet. But the need for an adequate Air Superiority fighter and the high cost for it decreased this order. There are orders now for 13 and expected order up to 17 in 2017 request.in total 31 JSF. Israel is planning to incorporate their own sensors and equipment. To have some form of sovereignty
JAPAN: only a couple firm orders, no signs of new orders (so, the qnt is “in option” only)
S-KOREA: investigation due to signalled contractual ireggularities/tech-transfer problems; after reduced by (from 60 to 40);
US: growing rumours and evidence that the 2400 total buy will vaporize (in fact already about 900 planned F35, to be purchased between 2008-2016 are delayed already)
Where to sell those 4500-5000 promised F35s??????
What will we do when they come for us?
(Editors note: After some more research I found that the plan suggested is the case if the Norwegian government find adequate means to cope with the cost increase. In that case the numbers will be down from 52 – 42. These discussions will take place at the end of the year. )