Effects based operations….. what effects?

The U.S.-led coalition has carried out nearly 3,800 airstrikes since August, but that’s led to few gains for an Iraqi military that has a long way to go before it can hold territory.

Interesting to see. thousand of sorties by US and Allied fighter aircraft meaning billions of dollars dropped over Iraq and Syria… and where are we today? OK there are some key places which would have been fallen if it didn’t happen. (Mount Sinjar, Hasakah region, Kobane e.g.) but what about the rest? Was this a good investment and has it speeded up the whiping out of ISIS/ISIL? Wouldn’t it be a smart thing to change a plan after a while when it seems to be not working at all?

Look at this well documented article about the situation in February ’15 in the Hasakah region / the Khabour river delta..

First see for yourself where and what the International coalition air strikes have been.. and what the effects where on the ground! (video)

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Again the problem is the OODA loop… (at least the lack of it)
That’s what the Air force thinkers do with their OODA loop don;’t they? What is happening in the minds of those USAF and allied thinkers…Just as with the JSF problem.. ‘can’t turn, can’t climb, can’t run’ but still there is no plan B.

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(I use the JSF often… not to bash the JSF, their advocates or lobbyists… but to show there is something fundamentally wrong in the mindset of the people who bare the responsibilities in the US but also in the Netherlands and other countries.)

What could be the plan B for the war on ISIS?
Looking at the facts based on real time intel shows us there are alternatives. Syria and Iraq are connected and democratic governed forces are two areas on which plan B can be executed.

Syria and Iraq are connected
First off all, start looking at the problems in Syria and Iraq as One. they aren’t separate problems, The supplies for IS gangs in Iraq come from Syria. So stop treating both countries as separated issues.

Syria&Iraq

The West knows best: Democratic governance and freedom!
As western countries we (our governments…) say we have high moral standards and we view human rights, democratic governing, freedom of speech and thought, e.g. as very important parts of our worldview high Wouldn’t it be time to support people with the same attitude, the same moral principles and democratic drive as we do? Right, that would mean we stop arming and training certain groups like ‘Hazzm movement’ / Levant Front – Jabhat al-Shamiyya for example. But also arming the Iraqi Security Forces hasn’t paid up to the expectations….. So Failing ISF forces receive weapons, from helicopters, F-16 fighters, tanks and other hardware they abandon within sight of the “enemy” which realy isn’t their enemy… they are there nephews, brothers, fathers… Arabs from the Sunni islam. These terrorist organisations (no other word for groups like al Qaeda’s hardline Nusra Front afiliated groups) receive weapons from US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE e.g.

Hazzm has received what it describes as small amounts of military aid from foreign states opposed to Assad, including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles.

More proof?  US Vice-president Biden:

Turks, Saudis, UAE funded and armed Al Nusra and Al Qaeda 

While Democratic peoples in Syria, and also in Iraq where the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and its Peshmerga forces are receiving some support and training (but none of this to Syriac, Yezidi and other self defense units.) These are the ones who we (US, NATO especially the Netherlands with its high standing Human Rights and humanistic views on Women rights, freedom of speech) should and must support…

Right read the Human rights policy paper of the Dutch government ones again. Freedom of religion isn’t that important to us… the freedom not to believe is… Oh yes, that’s also secured in the Rojava Democratic Self Administration…. Why the hell aren’t we supporting these peoples?

Just read this article about a member of the British House of Lords, Lord Raymond Joliffe of Hylton who visited Jazira (Cizire) Canton in Rojava:

In answer to the question: What is the message that will pass on to the United Kingdom after this visit, Lord Hylton said, “My message will be that there is a common area where people live in peace and security and that they must be supported”.

On the position of the UK regarding the ISIS Lord Hylton said, “ISIS is the greatest threat to Britain and Parliament is concerned about this organisation, and in my opinion the actions taken by the European union to combat the terrorism of this organisation is not enough, I am sure that they can exert more pressure to eliminate them.” .

We the western peoples have spend biljons if not triljons of dollars on boms (with prices ranging from $ 10.000 to $ 500.000 and even cruise missiles well over millions of dollars a piece. The highly expensive weapons are used to bomb individual fighters in their pick-up trucks, former US, former ISF military hardware like Abrams tanks and many HUMVEE type of vehicles.. and command and control centres for IS. But back to the plan B, what if it would be more affordable and more effective to create a really effective democratic governed ground force with better weapons and ammunition supplies to fight the fight against IS for us ” on the ground”. Advances of the YPG, Syriac Military Council (Christians) and certain Arab allies (don’t forget these, they are fighting against their own Sunni peoples) show these forces are able and willing to do so!

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Operation Commander Rubar Qamishlo
At the moment Operation Commander Rubar Qamishlo is in its second stage. After liberating large areas in the Rojava area and Kobane the next stage is to connect both the Kobane front with the Hasakah areas. This will close down the supply route from Turkey to IS.

CGMnuyuUoAAL0-t

A next step. IMO will be to take al- Raqqa.. The IS Stronghold. The entire area until the Euphrates river would be possible to take… IF

If there would be sufficient (new) weapons, especially the ones which would give these forces the ability to strike deeper (for example with Mortars (60 and 81mm (range up to 8km) Have 40mm grenade launchers, ) but also the 20mm  Anti Material Rifles would give them a big advantage over IS. Also delivery of certain Anti Tank or guided missiles.  Why not give them used vehicles and other systems which could increase the speed of their attack. Like M113 vehicles, or BV206 To attack Raqqah the YPG (and allies) must cross the Euphrates river.. they need boats and other assets to do so.

bv206 met 81mm mortar Spike

We don’t send our own troops, we just support troops who are sharing with us the same human vision and democratic will to be free. Why not? Is power politics with Saudi Arabia and Turkey more important than freedom? Please act decisively and fast. Only then the (minority) people of Iraq and Syria can be free.

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